Partners from ECMWF presented the CENTAUR Horizon Europe project at the 2025 Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Their work on forecasting extreme precipitation to anticipate urban flooding was also among the three most innovative ideas in meteorology as finalists for the Harry Otten Prize 2025.
From 8 to 12 September 2025, the Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) took place in Ljubljana, Slovenia. CENTAUR was represented at this conference by our partners from ECMWF, Jessica Keune and Chris Barnard.
In the session titled “Atmospheric and climate dynamics, predictability, and extremes”, Jessica Keune presented a novel extreme precipitation forecast to support the emergency management activities for societal crises, which is possible by leveraging data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) On-Demand Mapping component.
By looking at the return period of an event rather than the intensity of extreme precipitation (often underestimated values), the developed forecast products highlight regions where rare extreme precipitation is likely to occur. An evaluation of extreme precipitation forecasts over all flood-related activations from CEMS Rapid Mapping in 2024 suggests that the forecast provides a reliable indication of such crises.
Jessica Keune (ECMWF) presented an evaluation of the extreme precipitation forecasts for the Valencia floods and other flood-related activations from CEMS Rapid Mapping in 2024 in the session “Atmospheric and Climate dynamics, predictability, and extremes” at the Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society. Credit: Leonie Beck.
Recognition at the Harry Otten Prize 2025
The innovative value of CENTAUR’s forecast products was recognised by the expert jury of the Harry Otten Prize, a prestigious award for innovative ideas in meteorology. Our team was one of the three finalists with the title, “How rare, how risky? Actionable warnings for extreme precipitation despite biased forecasts”.
Although they did not win first place, the presentation by Chris Barnard and Jessica Keune triggered considerable interest, highlighting both the scientific findings and the societal relevance of the work carried out within CENTAUR.
Chris Barnard (second from left), and Jessica Keune (third from left), representing ECMWF and CENTAUR at the Harry Otten Prize Session held within the European Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2025. Credit: Siham El Garroussi.
Useful links:
- Overview of talks in the Harry Otten Prize session, here.
- News article about this year’s prize from the Harry Otten Page, here.
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