CENTAUR presents at the ITAIS 2025 Conference on Predicting Conflicts and Displacements in Fragile Contexts

On 17-18 October 2025 the CENTAUR Horizon Europe project participated in the 22^nd ITAIS conference at LIUC – Cattaneo University, organised by the Italian Chapter AIS (Association of Information Systems). The annual conference brings together members and leading national and international researchers to explore and discuss the most significant research in the Information Systems discipline. At the conference, our representatives showcased their most recent research which explores novel methods for anticipating humanitarian and political crises associated with drought in vulnerable regions.

*The 22^nd* *ITAIS conference* at *LIUC – Cattaneo University, organised by the Italian Chapter AIS (Association of Information Systems*).

Presentation of CENTAUR’s research

Representing the CENTAUR Horizon Europe project, our colleague Ludovico Maltagliati from Cherry-data presented the consortium’s latest research paper, ‘Predicting Conflicts and Displacements in Fragile Contexts: A Multi-Dimensional Model’. The paper proposes the implementation of a model to forecast conflict and displacements linked with drought conditions.

The presentation illustrated a cross-context perspective on forecasting conflict-driven displacement, showcasing innovative analytical methods, including predictive modelling and data-driven risk assessment. By integrating socio-political, environmental, and demographic indicators, the research aims to improve early-warning capabilities and inform timely decisions and humanitarian interventions.

*Ludovico Maltagliati presenting CENTAUR’s latest research paper,* ‘Predicting Conflicts and Displacements in Fragile Contexts’.

Advances in conflict and displacement forecasting

This study puts into perspective CENTAUR’s work on drought impacts and its consequences in water and food security. Within the project, our team have developed several indexes for drought impacts such as the Drought Impact Forecast Index (DIFI), which combines satellite data, meteorological forecasts, and socio-economic indicators to estimate risks of conflict and displacement at a regional level.

Results from our use cases for Somalia and Mali show how droughts can amplify the risk of conflict, highlighting accurate forecasting, supporting early warning and anticipatory action. Current work focuses on extending and validating these approaches in ongoing crises to further improve CENTAUR’s early warning capabilities.

*Discussion and networking at the ITAIS 2025 Conference.*

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