CENTAUR and SEED-FD are two research and development projects funded under Horizon Europe and responding to the growing risks caused by the consequences of climate change. By advancing early warning systems for droughts and floods and developing indicators which involve environmental, societal, and economic risk factors, the projects support global anticipatory action and more coordinated crisis response.
Shared Challenges Driven by Climate Change
Climate change is driving an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. From urban flooding to prolonged droughts, such extremes increasingly threaten food and water security, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
In many parts of the world, these events act as catalysts for wider instability. Populations already under stress may be displaced or forced to migrate, increasing the risk of conflicts or humanitarian emergencies. Effective anticipation and timely response to climate change-induced crises are more crucial now than ever.
Collaboration between CENTAUR and SEED-FD
While CENTAUR and SEED-FD follow different approaches, their goals are closely related. Both projects contribute to the advancement of Copernicus services by addressing complementary aspects of climate-related risks – from natural hazards to the social and political instability they trigger. Together, their developments contribute to a more integrated understanding of how climate extremes emerge and impact vulnerable regions.
On 21 May 2025, researchers from both projects gathered for their second technical exchange, which focused on drought-related challenges. These conversations are part of an ongoing dialogue which highlights the benefits of collaboration across projects focused on overlapping use case regions, such as Somalia for CENTAUR and Juba-Shebelle for SEED-FD.
The collaboration between the two projects reflects the value of knowledge exchange in European climate research. By working together, the two teams are creating a more integrated approach to strengthening early warnings and enabling better responses to emerging climate risks, bridging the gap between scientific forecasting and operational action.
CENTAUR and SEED-FD Technical Meeting on 21 May 2025.
CENTAUR: Anticipating Climate-Driven Crises
CENTAUR addresses the increasing need to detect and respond to complex crises driven by climate change. The project has developed 33 innovative indicators and 5 indexes to identify early signs of crises events related to urban flooding, as well as with food and water insecurity, especially in regions where these threats can escalate into political instability, conflict, or forced displacement.
By expanding the product portfolio of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) and the Copernicus Security Service – Support to EU External and Security Actions (CSS-SESA), CENTAUR links hazards early warnings with social and geopolitical risk analysis. This integrated approach enables earlier and more targeted responses to emerging risks.
CENTAUR’s approach strengthens the European Union’s ability to respond proactively to emerging threats, providing new ways to monitor conditions and act before crises escalate. This supports more timely interventions, better allocation of resources, and improved protection for vulnerable populations.
SEED-FD: Improving Forecast Accuracy for Floods and Droughts
SEED-FD focuses on advancing global flood and drought prediction. Building upon the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), the project works on increasing the accuracy and reliability of hydrological forecasts, which is an essential component of early warning systems.
To accomplish this, SEED-FD integrates satellite-based Earth observation with real-time data from local micro-stations. The project also improves the core hydrological model used in CEMS to better represent diverse hydroclimatic conditions, including the role of wetlands and groundwater. In addition, artificial intelligence techniques are used to improve extreme event detection and to develop new forecasting tools for a broader range of drought and flood scenarios.
A central focus of SEED-FD is to enhance CEMS services such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) and the Global Drought Observatory (GDO). These improvements are particularly important for regions in the Global South, closing existing data gaps and supporting more informed planning and early action.
CENTAUR and SEED-FD: Working Together for a More Resilient Future
As CENTAUR and SEED-FD activities progress, their outcomes will support decision-makers, institutions, and communities in being better prepared for climate-related risks. By improving early warning capabilities and combining environmental, social, and economic risk perspectives, CENTAUR and SEED-FD contribute to building a more resilient future.
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