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Water & Food Insecurity in Somalia

Somalia has been facing prolonged drought since 2020 as a result of successive failed rainy seasons. This has driven tens of thousands of people to relocate, mainly to urban centres, in search of water, food and economic opportunities. In addition, armed groups such as Al Shabaab are exploiting climate-related crises by presenting themselves as aid providers.

The lessons learned from this case study are relevant for assessing climate security risks in other countries in the Horn of Africa.

Use Case Type: Cold & Hot

Map of Somalia

Key Information:

Locality: Somalia

Event Date: 2018 – ongoing

Event Type: Consecutive failed rainy seasons, droughts, political instability, extremism, civil unrestĀ 

Use Case Objective: Forecast system with situation monitoring

Time Horizon: Quarterly ahead, every 3 months

Indicators to be tested:

  • Meteorological drought indicator (Monitoring)
  • Meteorological drought indicator (Forecast)
  • Meteorological drought indicator (calibrated in danger levels)
  • Agricultural drought monitoring (near real-time)
  • Agricultural drought forecast
  • Risk zone map
  • People movement indicator 
  • Food security
  • Economic security
  • Displaced persons
  • Crime and illicit activities
  • Radicalisation and polarisation
  • Humanitarian aid
  • Resource capture
  • Climate sensitivity of agri-food systems
  • Obstacles to mobility
  • Public services and infrastructures
  • State-citizen relations
  • Dispute resolution mechanisms
  • Social cohesion and trust 
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